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While the world is lost in the "recession scare", China comes along and adds its considerable deflationary weight to it by reporting more outright price deflation. Both consumer and producer. Together with a sharp drop in imports, this global loss of macro momentum is certainly not lost on China. That can only mean one thing: more government debt.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNN China’s deflation problems get worse
https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/10/economy/china-cpi-deflation-problems-intl-hnk/index.html

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Stocks plunged, bond yields dropped, the R-word is now the common phrase in the media...Jay Powell says everything is just fine and dandy. Even the President is now cautioning the economy might be going through a "transition" and the markets more and more can't get away from it.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Bond Market’s Trump Trade Is Looking Like a Recession Play
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-09/the-bond-market-s-trump-trade-is-looking-like-a-recession-trade

Bloomberg Treasuries Gain as Trump Transition Talk Fuels Recession Angst
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-10/us-credit-risk-rises-as-tariffs-job-cuts-stoke-recession-fears

Jay Powell in Chicago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6pZzfv8AQE

NBC Dow falls nearly 900 points and Nasdaq dives 4% as stock selloff gathers steam
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/stocks-tank-trump-declines-dismiss-recession-risk-rcna195653

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Hot on the heels of the big drop in employment, global trade soared at the absolute wrong time and for all the wrong reasons. Both point to the same huge loss of economic momentum, now seen coming from places all over the world. China, Canada...even the USA.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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Macy's is yet another with a warning on the economy just in time for the payroll numbers on February. They were a disaster if hardly anyone saw the true scale of it. Macy's might have a sense, as do other retailers. The data shows there really is big time trouble brewing in the jobs market.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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WSJ Macy’s Expects Sales to Drop Again This Year
https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/macys-q4-earnings-results-m-stock-d3da1b6a

CNBC U.S. payroll growth totals 151,000 in February, less than expected
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/jobs-report-february-2025.html

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Another bazooka, this time from Germany, of all places. The mere thought of it has been enough to send the German bond market into a tailspin and sending yields to nearly their highest in fourteen years while also pulling other parts of the marketplace into it, too. Does the selloff signal inflation, success, or something else entirely? What are the implications for everyone else?

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Politico Germany moves to overhaul debt rules to unleash major defense spending
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-unveils-e500-billion-defense-plan-as-security-threats-mount/

Roberto Perotti What Do We Know about the Effects of Fiscal Policy?
https://www.siepweb.it/siep/wp/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/1397925830013.pdf

Wilson, Daniel J.. 2012. "Fiscal Spending Jobs Multipliers: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4 (3): 251–82.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/pol.4.3.251

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If you are in any way interested in precious metals, you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below:
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Target issued another warning on the economy and then joined Best Buy as merely the first to say they're raising prices. While that may sound inflationary, it's the opposite and will end up pushing interest rates even lower. Those are already happening in the market, in part as markets more confidently price how the Fed is going to have to follow along, too. Just like last summer.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Target, Best Buy Warn US Consumers of Tariff Price Hikes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-04/target-sees-flat-sales-this-year-warns-of-risk-from-tariffs

Bloomberg Traders Pile Into Fed Rate-Cut Bets as Tariffs Roil Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-04/us-yield-curve-steepens-on-growth-angst-with-tariffs-now-reality

Atlanta Fed GDPNow
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

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Stocks are getting hit, with bond yields tumbling. The "growth scare" gets louder as the luxury car brand just confirmed it's heading for the worst, no longer willing to hold out for economic strength everyone talks about yet never happens. The forgot how to grow economy is firmly at risk of remembering traditional recession mechanics.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

WSJ Mercedes-Benz Plans to Cut Jobs as Earnings Expected to Slump
https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/mercedes-benz-plans-cost-cuts-as-earnings-expected-to-fall-this-year-6268813a

Bloomberg S&P 500 Sees Worst Selloff in 2025 as Bonds Climb: Markets Wrap
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-02/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates

ISM Feb 2025
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/february/

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Not a good week for financial markets. Oil down. Rates sunk. Stocks hit. Crypto crashing. Why? The "growth scare" is back. Or, at least, it's back in the mainstream. In reality, it never left and certain financial markets are being forced to reckon with this.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

Atlanta Fed GDPNow
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

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