Why are interest rates rising at one end of the yield at the same time falling on the opposite side? With more recession data coming in all the time, starting with payrolls, it seems as though there should be a uniform response from the marketplace. But that's not how steepening works.

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Washington Post
House Passes Bush Tax Cut
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2001/03/09/house-passes-bush-tax-cut/99152799-f156-414f-82c4-bed4fca05bb3/

Time ‘The Worst Is Over’
https://time.com/archive/6917914/the-worst-is-over/

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October payrolls were exceptionally weak, yet LT rates jump? With more rate cuts from the Fed basically assured, questions swirl around the Treasury selloff having many people wondering if there is a 'Trump trade' going on here. The answers are right there in front of us.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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This isn't about October or hurricanes. Government just confirmed jobs market is in big f-ing trouble.

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BLS Employment Situation October 2024
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_11012024.pdf

CNN Messy October jobs report muddied by strikes and storms ahead of Election Day
https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/us-jobs-report-october-11-01-24/index.html

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The government's latest data confirms the dramatic slowdown sweeping across the labor market. We've been documenting hours being cut, quitters quitting quits, no one hiring, and now even a few layoffs. Not only do the latest figures back all that up, they also help explain consumer behavior and even the last GDP estimate.

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CNBC Ford guides to low end of 2024 earnings forecast as it slightly tops Wall Street’s third-quarter expectations
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/28/ford-motor-f-earnings-q3-2024.html

Ford Q3
https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2024/10/28/third-quarter-2024-financial-results.html

Challenger Gray & Christmas October 2024
https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-fall-in-october-2024-but-ytd-up-4-from-last-year/

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Another seemingly solid US GDP report for the books thanks in large part to a huge allotment of missiles. Does this mean the soft landing has been achieved? Even if it has been achieved, we wouldn't know it from GDP data. Instead, history shows cyclical changes all look decent just before them. The latest quarterly data is not just comparable, it is, surprisingly, worse than every other period entering recession.

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Repo fails make sense being an indicator of collateral difficulties. Same for the 4-week US Treasury bill rate when it falls substantially. But how does Japanese government bill yields fit into the US$ repo picture? And why are they such a solid fit for it? The answer lies in the carry trade and what it means for funding markets as well as US recession risks.

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Bloomberg Mizuho Buys ‘Safe’ Assets on Risk That US Soft Landing Fails
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-08/mizuho-buys-safe-assets-to-cut-damage-if-us-soft-landing-fails

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Some unexpected bad news out of South Korea has implications for AI and a lot more. The investment boom triggered by ChatGPT has been a critical support for especially the Asian economy. Now there are signs it is cooling off along with a further setback in autos. Inopportune timing, to say the least.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

Bloomberg South Korea’s Economy Ekes Out Growth as BOK Assesses Risks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-23/south-korea-s-economy-ekes-out-growth-to-emerge-from-contraction

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Gold continues to soar to record highs, but why? Most will say inflation though bullion is actually a terrible inflation hedge. The reason why many people believe this is the one time during the Great Inflation. Gold's run in the seventies was instead about what happened in the sixties long before the inflation. And it's the same thing - the other end of it - that we're seeing today.

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FRB Boston Bretton Woods Conference 1984
https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/conference/28/conf28.pdf

Alan Greenspan Testimony Before the Committee on Banking and Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives July 24, 1998
https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/1998/19980724.htm

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