Observing Stock Price Volatility Ahead of the Earnings Release

A Key Level in the 10-Year Treasury Yield is Approaching

With Trump elected as the next U.S. president and both houses of Congress controlled by Republicans, this marks a period of full Republican governance. As the initial "Trump trade" winds down, our focus shifts to the post-inauguration period, specifically the 100-day "honeymoon phase." We expect small-cap stocks to gradually gain momentum during this time and recommend increasing exposure from 15-20% to 30%.

This analysis reviews ARM’s quarterly financial report and provides investment recommendations. The article examines ARM’s revenue growth, key drivers, and future projections, considering factors like licensing revenue, royalty income, and market competition.

Key Observations and Interest Rate Forecasts from the Latest Fed Meeting

Tomorrow, on November 7th (Eastern Time), the Federal Reserve will announce its November interest rate decision...

1. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US fell in September.

2. The LEI for the U.S. once again signaled a recession in September, but according to our model, the next U.S. economic adjustment is likely to occur in the first half of 2025. However, given the resilient of the U.S. employment market, this economic adjustment is expected to slow down rather than result in a recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth)

The earnings report will focus on Tesla’s gross and profit margins. Investors are watching for news on a lower-priced EV, which could lift Tesla’s stock. With a fair value of $200, declining short interest, and positive gamma, Tesla’s volatility may remain low. A break above $235 could target $271

Explore the impact of the SMCI incident on the AI industry, including potential delisting risks, financial implications, and shifts in AI semiconductor stocks. This analysis offers insights for SMCI shareholders on navigating possible volatility.

https://open.substack.com/pub/mimivsjames/p/how-should-we-think-about-the-impact?r=4my5va&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web