Greg interviews Dominic Faulder, associate editor at Nikkei Asia, long-time journalist in Southeast Asia and observer of the political and diplomatic machinations of Myanmar, and Thailand and Vietnam over the past 40 years.

The main thesis of the episode is this: How should a country such as Thailand respond when its neighbor Myanmar is in the midst of a destabilizing civil war? Dominic begins by pointing out what’s different about the current situation compared with events in its turbulent past. Myanmar has suffered various military coups, but traditionally the opposition to those coups has been splintered and factionalized. However, after the most recent 2021 military takeover, opposition groups unified, plunging the country into a genuine civil war.

So what does this mean for Thailand? According to Dominic, the long jungle border between the two countries is essentially impossible to police, opening up the real possibility of a massive refugee crisis in Thailand. In the long run, the military cannot succeed in running the country, and no exit strategy seems apparent for the generals. Dominic notes that if an even more severe food crisis occurs, as it did in Pol Pot's Cambodia in the years after the Vietnam War ended in 1975, hundreds of thousands of Burmese could spill across the Thai border.

Greg and Dominic continue discussing the perilous situation and what it means for the business-minded generals and military-minded diplomats in charge of Thailand in terms of diplomacy, military and economic outcomes as Dominic recounts Burmese history since independence and clarifies the difference between past instability and the current all-out civil war.

Don’t forget that Patrons get the ad-free version of the show as well as swag and other perks. We also sometimes post on Facebook, you can contact us on LINE and of course, head to our website (www.bangkokpodcast.com) to find out probably more info than you need to know.