Stephen Miran is a former senior advisor to the US Treasury Department, a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital, and a fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Stephen is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about his recent paper with Nouriel Roubini titled, *Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy,* as well as his thoughts on what a second Trump presidential term would mean for the Fed and financial markets.

Transcript for this week’s episode.

Stephen’s Twitter: @SteveMiran

Stephen’s Manhattan Institute profile

David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

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Related Links:

*ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy* by Stephen Miran and Nouriel Roubini

*Trump Wants a Weaker Dollar But Wall Street Doubts He’ll Get One* by Saleha Mohsin and Carter Johnson

*Trump Allies Draw Up Plans to Blunt Fed’s Independence* by Andrew Restuccia, Nick Timiraos, and Alex Leary

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:01:49) – Breaking Down *Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy*

(00:21:33) – Responding to Criticism from Janet Yellen and Others

(00:28:21) – Addressing Trump’s Push for a Weaker Dollar

(00:38:24) – Can We Weaken the Dollar While Still Ensuring Its Use?

(00:43:07) – What a Second Trump Term Would Mean for Fed Independence and Crypto

(00:49:19) – Outro

Carola Binder is an associate professor of civic leadership and economics at the University of Texas at Austin, and she is the author of a new book titled, *Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy.* Carola is also a returning guest to the podcast, and she rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about this book and some recent work she has done on the Fed’s framework review. David and Carola specifically discuss the history of inflation in the US, the advantages of adopting a nominal GDP targeting regime, what to expect from the Fed’s upcoming framework review, and more.

Transcript for this week’s episode.

Carola’s Twitter: @cconces

Carola’s website

David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Related Links:

*Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy* by Carola Binder

*Why Do We Dislike Inflation?* by Stefanie Stantcheva

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:03:42) – *Nominal GDP Targeting: Lessons from Recent History*

(00:12:18) – NGDP Level Targeting: Looking Through Supply Shocks and Policy Communication

(00:17:16) – *Shock Values: Prices and Inflation in American Democracy*

(00:21:44) – The History of Inflation and Deflation in the US

(00:30:30) – Key Lessons from the Revolutionary War and Civil War Periods

(00:35:37) – The Impact of Price Controls During World War II

(00:40:42) – The Emergence of Price Stability: From the Great Inflation Period to the Present

(00:46:24) – The Direction of the Fed’s Framework Review

(00:49:22) – Outro

Samim Ghamami is an economist at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), where he has been working on reforming the US Treasury market, and he joins David on Macro Musings to talk about these efforts. Samim and David also discuss the long run path of interest rates, the basics of the Treasury market, Samim’s outlook for Treasury market reform, and much more.

DISCLAIMER: Samim’s views are his own and do not represent those of his SEC colleagues, the commissioners, or the Chair.

Transcript for this week’s episode.

Samim’s Twitter: @GhamamiSamim

Samim’s website

David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings

Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot!

Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!

Join the Macro Musings mailing list!

Check out our Macro Musings merch!

Timestamps:

(00:00:00) – Intro

(00:00:58) – Samim’s Journey to the SEC

(00:05:47) – Breaking Down the Size and Composition of the Treasury Market

(00:10:25) – Explaining the Long Run Path of Interest Rates

(00:18:48) – The Key Segments of the Treasury Market

(00:28:25) – Central Clearing as a Treasury Market Reform

(00:34:40) – Picking the Most Effective Treasury Market Reform

(00:37:39) – Samim’s Future Outlook for Other Treasury Market Reforms

(00:43:46) – Addressing Risk Concentration Concerns

(00:48:26) – Outro