This podcast episode will explore the differences between physical gold and paper gold, and the risks associated with investing in paper gold. Paper gold refers to investments that give investors exposure to gold without requiring them to purchase the physical asset, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mutual funds, and futures contracts. The problem with paper gold is that there is far more of it in existence than physical gold to back it. The sources estimate that paper gold trading volume in 2011 was 10 times the total amount of physical gold mined in history. This creates a risk that, during a financial crisis, the demand for physical gold could outstrip supply, leading to a collapse in the paper gold market. Some investors are choosing to buy physical gold to mitigate this risk, but this comes with its own set of challenges, such as storage and security. The podcast will discuss strategies for investing in both physical and paper gold and how investors can protect themselves from the risks of a paper gold crisis.

The podcast, "Why Everyone Is Wrong About Crypto," uses a scientific approach to analyze the criticisms of Bitcoin. The author argues that most critics rely on the greater fool theory, which posits that Bitcoin is worthless and only has value because people are willing to buy it at increasingly higher prices. This theory predicts that Bitcoin will eventually crash to zero, yet this prediction has failed to materialize over the 15-year lifespan of Bitcoin. The author points out that this makes the critics’ argument unfalsifiable and therefore unscientific, as they refuse to adjust their theory based on real-world observations. The author urges critics to adopt a more scientific method, incorporating the observed price action into their analysis and considering the possibility that Bitcoin may actually hold value.

Understanding global liquidity, the amount of money circulating in the world economy, is crucial for navigating today's financial markets. Global liquidity significantly influences asset prices, including Bitcoin, traditional stocks, and bonds. One way to gauge global liquidity is by observing the global M2 money supply, which encompasses various forms of money, from cash to time deposits. Bitcoin's price has historically demonstrated a strong correlation with the global M2 money supply, suggesting its potential as an early indicator of liquidity trends. While short-term fluctuations in Bitcoin's price can be attributed to events within the cryptocurrency market, its long-term price movements often reflect broader shifts in global liquidity. Beyond Bitcoin, global liquidity impacts traditional markets as well. The BIS Global Liquidity Indicators highlight the significance of tracking foreign currency credit to assess liquidity trends. Furthermore, economist Michael Howell's analysis of the Global Liquidity Cycle offers valuable insights into the ebb and flow of global liquidity. He predicts a peak in global liquidity around September 2025, but concerns remain about potential declines due to the deleveraging of the European banking system. The impact of global liquidity extends beyond financial markets, influencing economic cycles and potentially exacerbating inequalities between economic winners and losers. Therefore, managing global liquidity effectively is paramount for ensuring a stable and sustainable financial future.