Episodes

  • Wake Up: The German Fiscal Stimulus Is Huge

    Wake Up: The German Fiscal Stimulus Is Huge
    Mar 7 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the German fiscal stimulus announcement: with its gigantic magnitude and fast-track process, this marks a historical turnaround for Germany and Europe. The implications for markets are big in stocks, bonds, and FX. If you want to chat with Alf, ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg or send an email to alf@palinurocapital.com If you want to chat with Brent, ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg.
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    37 mins
  • Growth Scare: Yes or No?

    Growth Scare: Yes or No?
    Feb 28 2025
    Alf and Brent unpack the last big market moves which investors are broadly interpreting as a growth scare. Is that the correct interpretation? And in general: are we going to have a US growth scare or not? Interested in Alf's institutional macro research? Contact him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg or via alf@themacrocompass.com Interested in Brent's daily FX research reports? Contact him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg or check out Spectra AM/FX
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    38 mins
  • The Next Big Macro Trade

    The Next Big Macro Trade
    Feb 21 2025
    Markets are caught between cross currents, and the thesis for a stronger USD / sticky inflation seems as valid as the thesis for gentle disinflation / slower growth. Brent and Alf discuss what the next big macro trade could be. Want access to Alf's institutional macro research? Ping him (Alfonso Peccatiello) on Bloomberg or send an email at alf@themacrocompass.com Want access to Brent's research notes? Ping him (Brent Donnelly) on Bloomberg or visit https://www.spectramarkets.com/am-fx/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20feb25/
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    36 mins
  • How To Trade Tariff Day

    How To Trade Tariff Day
    Jan 17 2025
    In this episode, Alf and Brent reflect on the upcoming ''Tariff Day'' and how to trade it. The duo shares their scenario-based approach covering multiple asset classes including bonds, FX and equities. Alf can be reached via X (@MacroAlf) and on Bloomberg (Alfonso Peccatiello) Brent can be reached via X (@@donnelly_brent) and on Bloomberg (Brent Donnelly) Show notes: https://50in50.substack.com/p/trade-6-options-or-cash Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-17jan25/
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    34 mins
  • The UK Bond Market Is Imploding

    The UK Bond Market Is Imploding
    Jan 10 2025
    Alf and Brent discuss the big moves in UK bond markets and the drop in the UK Sterling: bond vigilantes are in action, but what next? They also focus on the upcoming tariff announcement and the impact on US bond markets, the US Dollar and equity markets. Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-10jan25/
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    36 mins
  • The Most Hawkish Fed In Years - What Now?

    The Most Hawkish Fed In Years - What Now?
    Dec 20 2024
    Powell delivered a super hawkish message: inflation remains sticky, and the Fed won’t cut rates as much as the market expected in 2025. The “Fed Put” is not there anymore - should investors go and buy their own puts? Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-20dec24/
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    39 mins
  • The US Dilemma in 2025

    The US Dilemma in 2025
    Dec 13 2024
    Alf and Brent discuss the US dilemma in 2025: should Trump be aggressive out of the gate with tariffs sacrificing growth for foreign policy victories, or should he focus on other priorities allowing Powell to cut rates and facilitate the refinancing of $7 trillion of maturing Treasuries? The duo also discussed the perils and benefits of leverage in trading and investing. Do you want to ask questions to Brent and Alf? Reach out to Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly on Bloomberg. Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-13dec24/
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    37 mins
  • Trading Trump 2.0

    Trading Trump 2.0
    Dec 6 2024
    Alf and Brent resume the show by assessing how to approach Trump 2.0 from a macro trading perspective in 2025. They also discuss the ''Death of Europe'': is it happening, or is it an overcrowded narrative? Trial for Alf's Institutional Research: https://forms.gle/25heFudTB4ouuJ1H6 Brent's Daily Newsletter: https://www.spectramarkets.com/ Transcript: https://www.spectramarkets.com/tmtf-transcript-06dec24/
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    34 mins